Maria could beat a four-time winner only if she
Why this is right
We need a rule that proves that Maria "trained hard", so that concept has to be on the right of the arrow. Since this has "trained hard" on the left (the only if signifies the necessary, right-side idea), it's worth looking at. It says this: if beat a four ? trained hard time winner Is the trigger idea applicable to Maria? Did she beat a four-time winner? Yes, she beat Sue, who won the four previous years. According to this rule, that means that Maria trained hard. So we proved the conclusion! (If you're beating yourself up, thinking, "How were we supposed to know to use the four-time winner part of the premise?", we weren't supposed to know. We're supposed to stay flexible with what the correct answer puts on the left hand side. We can't always predict the trigger language. We just ask ourselves whether the trigger is applicable to the thing we're talking about in the conclusion -- in this case, Maria. We are not flexible when it comes to the right side, though. We have to prove "trained hard", so the right side needs to be saying that or something definitionally equivalent.)
Skill tested: Sufficient Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.