Logical ReasoningDifficulty: Medium

PT108 S2 Q9 Explanation

Very powerful volcanic eruptions send

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Stimulus

Very powerful volcanic eruptions send large amounts of ash high into the atmosphere, blocking sunlight and causing abnormally cold temperatures for a year or more after the eruption. In 44 B.C. there was a powerful eruption of Mount Etna in Sicily. In the following year, Chinese historians recorded summer frosts and dimmed sent into the atmosphere by Mount Etna's eruption must have spread over great distances.

What this question is testing

Evaluate

Your task

Break the argument into its conclusion and evidence, then do exactly what the question stem asks with that structure.

Common trap

Answers that sound relevant to the topic but don't connect to the argument's actual reasoning.

Winning move

Predict what a right answer must do, then test each choice against the conclusion-evidence gap.

Reading along? Open the full official question in LawHub — we show a fragment here and keep the reasoning in our own words.

The question
9.

In evaluating the support given for the conclusion advanced in the last sentence of the passage, it would be most

Answer choices

  1. No Impact3% picked this

    modern monitoring equipment can detect the precise path of volcanic ash

    Whether modern monitoring equipment can / can't do a certain thing has nothing to do with evaluating whether it was the case 2000+ years ago that ash from Italy spread to China and caused the cold summer.

  2. No Impact: duration of weird weather11% picked this

    the abnormal weather in China lasted for a full year

    Whether the abnormal weather in China lasted a full year or only 10 months doesn't help us ascertain whether or not the abnormal weather in China was caused by ash spreading over great distances from Italy.

  3. No Impact7% picked this

    temperatures in Sicily were abnormally cold after Mount

    We fully expect Sicily to have been abnormally cold after the eruption, because it's right underneath the ash cloud of Mt. Etna, so much sunlight will be blocked. If temperatures weren't that cold after the eruption, that would seem to mean it wasn't that bad an eruption or that the ash from the eruption quickly dispersed from the area around Sicily, or that Sicily was going through an abnormal heat spell around the time of the eruption so the cooling from the eruption only brought the temperature down to a normal amount. It doesn't seem to tell us anything with any direct impact on the cold Chinese summer.

  4. Correct78% picked this

    there were any volcanic eruptions near China around the time of

    Why this is right

    This provides us with a potential way to weaken the conclusion. To weaken the conclusion we need to figure out how the trigger could be true while the outcome is false. How could it be that "the cold Chinese summer was caused by volcanic ash in the atmosphere" (it doesn't specify where the volcanic ash came from), but that the ash from Mt. Etna did not spread over great distances from Italy to China? We could say that the cold Chinese summer was caused by volcanic ash in the atmosphere from an eruption nearer to China!

    Skill tested: Evaluate · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

  5. No Impact: subsequent eruptions1% picked this

    subsequent eruptions of Mount Etna were as powerful as the one

    Whether other eruptions in the proceeding 2000+ years were as strong or weren't as strong does nothing for our efforts to solve the causal mystery of what was causing the cold Chinese summer of 43 B.C.

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