Logical Reasoning

PT108 · S2 · Q15 Each of two drugs, S and T

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Each of two drugs, S and T, greatly reduces the effects of potentially fatal heart attacks if given as soon as possible after the attack begins, but a trial has shown that use of drug T instead of drug S would prevent death in one additional case out of 120.

Conclusion (Therefore)

Society is presented with a stark policy decision: should we or shouldn't we pay the $240k it would cost to use drug T in order to save one additional patient.

Evidence

Using drug T instead of drug S would prevent death in one additional case out of 120, but drug T costs $2k more per treatment than drug S.

Evaluate

The conclusion is an interesting one because it's not actually making a decision about whether we should or shouldn't pay for the more expensive drug. It's only saying, "This is a decision we face."

So if we're trying to find objections to the argument, we need to think of a way to argue that this is not a decision we face. We aren't choosing between spending $240k extra vs. losing 1 out of 120 patients we wouldn't otherwise.

How can we make that objection?

One possible piece of wiggle room is that the author seems to be boxing us into some False Choice between drugs S and T. They have never established that those two drugs are the only two options. What if drug U is at least as effective as T but is much cheaper?

Another possible line of objection involves the fact that the $240k in the conclusion is coming by multiplying $2k extra per treatment times 120. The author is thinking, if we give drug T to 120 people, we'll have spent an extra $240k and saved one additional life.

But do we have to give drug T to all 120 people? Can we just pay extra for drug T when we think it's a special situation where the patient is more vulnerable than usual? Maybe drug T can save one life out of 120, but it seems to be when that patient has diabetes.

Thus, we don't need to give drug T to all 120 people. We could just give it to the subset of patients in that 120 who have diabetes. In that case, we're not paying as much as $240k to save one additional patient.

Goal

Given that this argument was so real-world and didn't have conditional logic, it's unlikely that the correct answer will be in the Linking form. It seems more likely that we'll see a Defender answer, where it's ruling out an objection. If we negate the correct answer, it should sound like an objection (like it Weakens the argument).

15.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the argument relies?

  1. Drug S has certain side

    Out of Scope: side effects

    We can't say the author needed to assume anything about side effects, since she never brought that topic up. If we negated this and learned that S and T have the same side effects, that wouldn't hurt her argument in any way.

    3% picked this

  2. Drug T is much newer

    Out of Scope

    Out of Scope: newer / development costs Causal Speculation We can't say the author needed to assume anything about which is newer or which was more costly to develop, since she never brought that topic up. This is trying to invite people to invent a causal backstory for why drug T is more expensive for treatment. Maybe it's because drug T had higher development costs it needs to recoup, but maybe it's for a different reason. If we negated this and learned that S and T are the same age and had comparable development costs, that wouldn't hurt her argument in any way. It's still a fact that T is $2k more per treatment than is S.

    3% picked this

  3. After a heart attack, drug

    Contradicted, if anything

    The author never discusses any specific dosage timeline like this answer describes, so we have no idea what her position on this would be. But, given that we're told that both S and T greatly reduce the effects of potentially fatal heart attacks if given as soon as possible after the attack begins, it sounds like both drugs are thought to be effective if given immediately. This answer is saying that even once it's too late for S to be effective, T would still be effective, but we have no idea if that's the case. If we negate this and say that T's effectiveness window ends around the same time that S's does, it wouldn't weaken anything.

    12% picked this

  4. Correct

    There is no quick, practical,

    Why this is right

    Whenever we're doing Necessary Assumption and we see an answer Ruling Out an idea with "not / no", we want to take a good look, because tons of correct answers on Necessary Assumption have this form. (We call them Defender answers) If we negate this, it's saying, "There is a quick, practical, and relatively cheap way to know for each person whether T would be more effective". This means that the author's thinking of multiplying $2k (the extra cost of T) times 120 patients (since T saves 1 out of 120) is wrong. We don't need to give the more expensive drug to everyone if there's a quick, practical, cheap way to know whether T would be more effective in an individual case. If it's easy to diagnose when T would be worthwhile, then the policy decision we'll face is "whether or not to pay the $2,000 it would cost to use drug T in order to save one additional patient".

    Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    78% picked this

  5. Drug T works significantly faster

    Unknown Comparison: faster Causal Speculation

    We aren't told anything about how fast either drug works. This answer is trying to invite people to speculate a causal backstory for why T is able to save an extra 1 out of 120 patients ... "maybe it's because T works way faster?" Sure, maybe. But maybe it's for a different reason. It's not necessary that a drug work faster in order for it to work more successfully.

    4% picked this

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