The chances that tropical storms

Answer choices

1. A

   Correct93% picked this

   There are likely to be more tropical storms if the amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s

   Why this is right

   This says, "If CO2 in Earth's atmosphere continues increasing, then likely more tropical storms". That was our prediction, from putting together the causal chain. More CO2 leads to rising water temps, and that results in more large bodies of water exceeding 26 degrees at a depth of 60m. And whenever the temp of a large body of water exceeds 26 degrees at a depth of 60m, the chance of tropical storms goes up.

   Skill tested: Most Supported · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

   93%
2. B

   Too Strong: only when1% picked this

   Tropical storms can occur only when the air temperature exceeds 26

   This says If air temperature is ? then impossible to 26º or less have a tropical storm Nothing in this paragraph ever identified a required characteristic for a tropical storm to occur. The first sentence just talks about a phenomenon that would be sufficient to make a tropical storm more likely.

   1%
3. C

   Too Strong: greater than ever3% picked this

   The number of large bodies of water whose temperatures exceed 26 degrees Celsius to a depth of about 60 meters is greater

   We don't have any information about Earth's past. We only know that in the future, if CO2 continues to increase, then the number of large bodies exceeding 26º will be higher than it is today. But we don't know that today's number is the highest in all of Earth's history. There may have been times in Earth's 4 billion year history when there were more large bodies of water with temps exceeding 26 degrees.

   3%
4. D

   Out of Scope: ferocity1% picked this

   The ferocity of tropical storms does not depend on the amount of carbon dioxide in

   The passage never discusses different levels of severity of tropical storms, so we can't possibly derive an idea about what affects the ferocity (how ferocious the storm is). We only talk about one phenomenon that can increase the likelihood of a tropical storm developing, but we have no idea whether that storm will be of lower/average/higher intensity.

   1%
5. E

   Reversed Causal Relationship2% picked this

   Any increase in the temperatures of the Earth’s oceans would cause the amount of carbon dioxide in the

   We were told that more CO2 would lead to higher water temps. This answer is saying that higher water temps leads to more CO2. We don't have any way to justify saying that causal relationship in reverse.

   2%