Logical Reasoning

PT106 · S1 · Q21 Psychologist: Some astrologers

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Psychologist: Some astrologers claim that our horoscopes completely determine our personalities, but this claim is false.

Conclusion

This claim is false. rephrased: our horoscopes do not completely determine our personalities.

Evidence

We found two individuals born 40 years ago today on the same day and at the same time (one in Toronto and one in New York), and they have different personalities.

Evaluate

In order to prove that "X does not completely determine Y", the author has to show that sometimes X is present and Y happens, but sometimes X is present and Y doesn't happen. Or if we're thinking less in Absolute terms and more in Relative terms ... sometimes X is present and this Y happens, but sometimes X is present and this different Y happens.

If we were trying to prove , then we would make our case by saying, .

If the author wants to prove that "horoscopes do not completely determine our personalities", then the author needs to show us .

The author is trying to do just that. Does she establish 1. Same horoscope (no, just that they are born same day / same time) 2. Different personalities (yes, that's the final sentence)

Goal

The missing idea in this argument is the issue of whether these two individuals have the same horoscope. The author is assuming, .

21.

Which one of the following is an assumption on which the psychologist's argument depends?

  1. Astrologers have not subjected their

    Irrelevant Distinction: subjected to rigor

    When Necessary Assumption answers rule out an idea with "not / no", we should carefully consider them, since many correct answers are written that way. If we negate this and say, "Astrologers have subjected their claims to rigorous experimentation", does that weaken? No. It would weaken if we knew that the astrologers' claims were subjected to rigorous experimentation and were verified by that experimentation. But simply being subjected to rigorous experimentation doesn't weaken the argument.

    2% picked this

  2. The personality differences between the

    Opposite, if anything

    The author thinks that horoscopes don't determine our personalities. He probably thinks that other stuff determines our personalities -- our family members / our friends / our environment. So, it's very likely that the author thinks that cultural differences between Toronto and New York are part of what explains the personality differences between the two individuals. If we negated this answer and said, "the personality differences can be explained by the cultural differences between the two different cities", that would just strengthen the author's argument. That would show that personality differences were not completely explained by horoscopes.

    23% picked this

  3. Correct

    The geographical difference between Toronto

    Why this is right

    Again, we have the lovable ruling out "not / no". If we negate this, it's saying: The geographical difference did result in them having two different horoscopes. That unravels the whole argument. Our author can only prove that "horoscopes don't completely determine personality" by providing an example where people had the same horoscope, but different personalities. If these two individuals had different horoscopes, then of course they had different personalities! (the astrologers would say)

    Skill tested: Necessary Assumption · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    70% picked this

  4. Complete birth records for the

    Too Strong: complete

    We don't need for both hospitals to have kept records of 100% of babies over the past 40 years. If one of them only kept records for 99.9% of babies over the past 40 years, would that weaken this argument? No. As long as the birth records on these two individuals are correct (same date / same time), the author has all he needs from the hospital records.

    1% picked this

  5. Identical twins have identical genetic

    Irrelevant Distinction

    The remark about identical twins is a concession to astrologers. It plays no role in the author's argument, so the author isn't making any assumptions about identical twins. Would it matter if identical twins were only 99.9% genetically similar? No, that wouldn't do anything to the author's argument. Would it matter is identical twins usually have fairy distinct home environments? Nope.

    4% picked this

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