Logical Reasoning

PT105 · S2 · Q10 Premiums for automobile accident

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Premiums for automobile accident insurance are often higher for red cars than for cars of other colors.

Conclusion

Lives could undoubtedly be saved by banning red cars from the roads altogether.

Evidence

A greater percentage of red cars are involved in accidents than are cars of any other color.

Evaluate

The author conclusion is a conditional, but the trigger is just saying, "If this evidence is true". That's how we treat evidence by default in Logical Reasoning, so we can basically ignore worrying about that.

The author thinks that banning red cars could save lives, which should strike us all as an insane idea. Why are red cars inherently a threat to life?

The author's evidence is a correlation: red cars are more likely to be involved in an accident than are cars of any other color.

Any time an LSAT author presents and considers a correlation between X and Y, she tends to assume that one causes the other.

In this case, we can tell the author is presuming that "being in a red car" is causing people to get into accidents, hence the correlation between red cars and being involved in accidents.

If the author is concluding that lives could be saved by banning red cars, then the author is implicitly thinking that currently lives are being lost because of red cars.

Goal

When an LSAT author sees a correlation between two things (red cars / accidents) and overconfidently assumes one causal explanation (red cars ---cause--> accidents), we can talk about the Flaw several different ways:

1. Simply call out this illicit move from a mere correlation between two things to the assertion or assumption of some causal relationship between those things (e.g. "infers a causal relationship from a mere correlation")

2. Debunk the plausibility of the author's causal explanation (e.g. )

3. (most popular) Point out the possibility of some Alternate Explanation for this curious correlation. We want to consider whether the causality could be happening in reverse (could getting into accidents cause someone to drive a red car?), or whether there could be some 3rd factor that explains the other two things (could it just be that flashy, aggressive people both buy red cars and drive like jerks, getting themselves into lots of accidents)

10.

The reasoning in the argument is flawed because the argument

  1. accepts without question that insurance

    Unrelated to Argument

    The argument has nothing to do with auto insurance premiums. The author's only premise is a correlation between red cars and higher rates of being involved in an accident. In addition to this answer choice having nothing to do with the premise or conclusion, it also doesn't seem like an objectionable thing. It's very reasonable to accept that insurance companies have the right to charge higher premiums for higher-risk clients. That's sort of a founding principle of insurance. Your rate is based on your risk level.

    1% picked this

  2. fails to consider whether red

    Out of Scope: repair cost

    Could we object to this argument by saying, "Hey, author --- the cost to repair a red car is different from that of other cars"? Nope. That has nothing to do with the author's conclusion, which is saying "let's ban red cars in order to save lives". This answer seems, like (A), to be trying to get students thinking about the insurance policies, which are totally extraneous to the author's argument. Insurance companies care about repair costs, because that's part of how they determine premiums, but this author isn't arguing anything about insurance companies or premiums at all.

    2% picked this

  3. Correct

    ignores the possibility that drivers

    Why this is right

    This suggests an Alternate Explanation for the curious fact (the correlation between red cars and accidents). It's not that red cars are inherently more dangerous and that's why they're involved in more accidents. It's that Fast & Furious show-off types who will be driving aggressively no matter what car they're driving are attracted to red cars. If the riskiest drivers like to buy sexy red cars, then red cars will be disproportionately driven by more risky drivers and thus be involved in more accidents. But it's not because the cars are red. If we banned red cars, these same aggressive drivers would be on the road getting into accidents, just in different-colored cars. This was the classic "3rd Factor" alternate explanation for a correlation.

    Skill tested: Flaw · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.

    67% picked this

  4. does not specify precisely what

    Never a Flaw

    We never have to specify exact numbers, precise measurements, official definitions, or names of our sources. Flaw questions that ask for more details are always wrong. This is about reasoning, not details. It suffices for the logical force of the author's argument that red cars are more correlated with accidents than any other color of car.

    4% picked this

  5. makes an unsupported assumption that

    Too Strong: every

    The author definitely didn't commit herself to the extreme idea that 100% of accidents result in loss of life. The author is for sure assuming that at least some of the accidents involving red cars involve some loss of life, but the author doesn't need it to be 100% of accidents. It could be that 99% of accidents result in loss of life and her argument would make just as much sense.

    26% picked this

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