Frankie: If jelly makers were given incentives to make a certain percentage of their jellies from cloudberries, gatherers would increase.
Anna: That plan would fail. Cacao, like cloudberries, was once harvested from wild plants. When chocolate became popular in Europe, the cacao gathers could not supply enough to meet the increased demand, and farmers began to grow large quantities of it at low cost. Now all cacao used in commercial chocolate production berries grown on farms will completely supplant berries gathered in the wild.
What this question is testing
Conclusion (Anna)
Anna says Frankie's incentive plan won't actually help cloudberry gatherers.
Evidence
Her reason: this exact pattern played out before with cacao. Demand went up, gatherers couldn't keep up, farms moved in, and now all the cacao is farmed. Anna says cloudberries will go the same way.
Evaluate
Anna's strategy is straightforward: use a past situation as a model to predict what will happen with a current proposal.
Whether her prediction is correct is a separate question. The Method question only asks how she argues, and her tool is comparison to a past case.
Goal
Find the answer that says: predicts a proposal's outcome by comparing it to a past situation.
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