Three-year-old Sara and her playmate Michael are both ill and have the same symptoms.
Conclusion
Sara definitely doesn't have a strep infection.
Evidence
Michael definitely doesn't have strep, and Sara probably has the same illness as Michael.
Evaluate
It seems like the conclusion is too sure of itself. The argument would be valid if it just concluded, .
Goal
Look for an answer saying that the other loses track of the distinction between Probably and Definitely