Logical Reasoning

PT1 · S3 · Q5 To the Editor: In 1960, an astronomer

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To the Editor:

Conclusion (this indicates)

The 1960 astronomer's model is wrong; life as we know it exists only on Earth.

Evidence

The model predicts that there are as many as 1 million extraterrestrial civilizations across all solar systems, but to date, we haven't detected even one planet outside our solar system.

Evaluate

Oh, man. I don't know why Clay Moltz makes me laugh so much but it does. Especially seeing his dumbass name in the question stem.

If we're arguing the Anti-Conc, that the model is correct and there are 1 million alien civilizations out there, how could we respond to Mr. Clayton Moltz's objection that we haven't detected even one planet outside our solar system yet?

Couldn't we say,

Goal

Look for an answer that independently helps us argue that the model is correct (maybe other predictions it's made have been corroborated), that helps us argue that life does exist elsewhere (maybe we haven't detected a planet but we've detected other strong clues of life), or that helps us respond to the objection that we haven't detected any planets outside our solar system yet (let's make an excuse for why we haven't).

Which one of the following, if accepted by Clay Moltz, would require him to reconsider his conclusion?

Forms of life other than
Out of Scope
Moltz's conclusion is specifically about "life as we know it" — life of the type we're familiar with. This answer is about other forms of life, which Moltz explicitly excludes from his claim. Even if weird types of alien lifeforms exist, his narrow conclusion (no Earth-style life elsewhere) is unaffected.
17% picked this
There are many stars that
No Impact
This seems more helpful to Moltz than to us. He's skeptical that there are planets out there with life on it. This is saying that many starts don't even have planets orbiting them. So if anything this would help Clay.
3% picked this
Correct
Detecting planets outside our solar
Why this is right
This allows us to respond to Clay's premise. He's saying, "If the model were correct and there were a million alien civilizations out there, then how come we haven't even detected one planet outside our solar system?" And this is saying, "we don't have instruments that are sensitive enough to detect planets outside the solar system yet". The fact that we haven't detected any isn't because there aren't any out there to be detected. It's just because we don't have any tool that would allow us to detect them.
Skill tested: Weaken · how this choice captures the argument's function is the move to repeat next time.
68% picked this
The soundness of the conclusion
No Impact
This wishy-washy idea could work either way. We could argue that the model's assumptions are sound and thus that the conclusion is sound. But Moltz could argue that the model's assumptions are unsound and thus that the conclusion is unsound. It's not giving us any way to assess whether the model's assumptions or conclusions ARE sound.
6% picked this
Due to sheer distances and
No Impact
Like (C), this would potentially respond to Moltz's premise and offer an excuse for why we haven't detected any planets outside our solar system yet -- "They might be out there, but the alien civilizations have great difficulty communicating with us." But (C) has more impact. Moltz could respond to this by saying, "Sure -- I'm not expecting that the aliens will have already sent us messages. I'm just expecting that we could at least DETECT A SINGLE PLANET!" (C) more directly addresses Moltz's premise by talking about detection rather than about planet-to-planet communication.
6% picked this

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